Heading Toward The Finish Line
With the November 2 general election fast approaching, grim would be the most appropriate descriptive for the immediate future of social services providers and other state vendors. For them it’s been a long few years and an even longer summer as the state wrestles with record budget deficits, a staggering amount of fresh debt and no resources to pay for any of it. In addition, the already precarious leadership capabilities of the state’s chief executive became more so with the sudden resignation of Jerry Stermer, Governor Quinn’s Chief of Staff recently. Even though his replacement, Michelle Stadler, is considered highly qualified, the perception that the current administration committed still yet another gaffe may be hard to overcome.
In politics, perception means everything. We’ve all seen elected officials who in reality couldn’t think their way out of a paper bag, but who have been re-elected year after year because the public perceived them as likeable. We’ve also seen, as in the case of former President Gerald Ford, that the perception of being a “stumblebum” can hurt one’s image very badly. In the close election of 1976 that Ford lost his image as error-prone was a contributing factor. Perception in Illinois today tells us that the once hard-charging reformer who assumed the governor’s office two years ago has “left the building” and has been replaced by an individual that pundits have taken to call “Governor Jello”. Not good. He’s found out the hard way that it’s easy to throw stones from the outside when there is no accountability attached. Responsibility is a game-changer. The GOP also found that out in Washington, D.C. when they took over the Congress in 1995 and found that talking about governing is easy, actually doing it isn’t.
During the next five weeks expect the budget to the deficit to take center stage in the contest for governor. Inquiring minds want to know what each candidate has in mind to get the state back on track. Brady will be suggesting that Quinn is an inefficient steward who lives to raise taxes, and Quinn will be questioning Brady’s abilities and suggest that his word not to raise taxes is meaningless. Neither has been extremely forthright about budget specifics, but Quinn, fortunately or unfortunately, happens to occupy the office so he will be both the voice of experience and the target of criticism. Brady can portray himself as the “outsider” who can pretty much promise anything without pre-election repercussion.
1994 reprise?
Looking back at 1994, there are many who are of the opinion that 2010 will be a mirror image of that year when a GOP tsunami resulted in control of both Congress and the Illinois legislature. Republicans already had control of the Illinois Senate in 1994 but needed a turnover of nine seats to overcome the Democrats 67-51 majority. When the dust settled the turnover was thirteen seats, a pretty incredible number. That majority lasted for two years, until 1996, when the Democrats wrestled control once again.
Even with all of the polls, direct mail, media advertising and shouting, there is no way to accurately predict what voters might do in four-plus weeks. Certainly there are certain similarities to 1994 this year that are evident, but there are also differences.
The similarities are a Democratic president two years into his administration with drooping popularity (although this is an Illinois president whose popularity in his home state is still fairly high), a divisive national health care debate steeped in misinformation, and an attempt by the congressional minority party to promise “change” (their type).
Differences, specifically to Illinois at least, are a recognition by Illinois Democrats that there could be a huge wave on the horizon (that didn’t happen in 1994 until it was too late), legislative races that are being contested are in districts the Democrats drew in 2002 (Republicans drew the 1992 maps that were in play in 1994), no straight party voting (it was abolished by the GOP legislature in 1996 after it was attributed to Democratic successes in the 1996 elections) which means that voters will have to choose candidates individually and could be a big advantage to incumbents, and a difference in the top races (in 1994, the GOP had Governor Edgar running for re-election and Democrat Dawn Clark Netsch ran an awful race, fell behind Governor Edgar almost 2-1 in June, never recovered, was trounced in November and took the entire Democratic Party down with her). This year the race for governor will be closer and the Democrats have two statewide officeholders that should get voters to cross over – Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White.
There are also intangibles that are present that may impact the outcome on November 2, depending on how serious prospective voters take them as they cast their ballots. How much impact will the tea party movement have? Are they a niche group composed of right wingers and libertarians, or is their reach broader? Will the horrific state of the state drive people to the polls or drive them away? Will the perceived lack of confidence in state leaders and the legislature spell doom for the incumbent party, or will voters say, “get rid of everyone else, but mine’s ok”?
Will alternative candidates and parties like the Green Party and Scott Lee Cohen have any measurable impact individually or collectively? Will efforts by the Chicago Tribune and GOP candidates to paint Speaker Michael Madigan as the villain in the state of the state mess gain traction, or will it prove to be a yawner?
We’ll know the answers to these and perhaps get a glimpse into the future in just over 30 days.
Regardless as to whomever you support or root for, or whichever philosophy you espouse, there is one thing that everyone should be praying for between now and November 2 … that the results of November 2 don’t result in a 59-59 tie in the House. It won’t be pretty, trust us.
Veto Session (And Other) Dates Reminder
The legislature is scheduled to meet the week before (November 16, 17, 18) and the week after (November 29, 30 and December 1) Thanksgiving to conduct its annual veto session. The governor vetoed or amendatory vetoed very little so there is some possibility that the number of session days may be cut. Of course, it also leaves time to act on other issues that may be outstanding.
Also expect at least a short legislative session in January. A governor will be sworn in on Monday, January 10. The legislature will probably meet that day and the next, wrapping up the current session before the new General Assembly is sworn into office on January 12. The January session days could be significant because as of January 1 the number of votes necessary to pass a bill and have it effective immediately drops from a three-fifths (36 Senate/71 House) to a simple majority (30/60).
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