The summer doldrums season started as expected, but it sure isn’t ending that way. The incredible turn(s) of events during and after the Blagojevich trial, the sudden resignation of Jerry Stermer, Governor Quinn’s Chief of Staff, and the beginning of fairly heavy campaign advertising by gubernatorial candidates have made for an interesting August, to say the least.
First and foremost, the governor has completed action on all of the bills that were sent to him by the legislature. However important those initiatives are, the one burr under the saddle that the governor continues to wrestle with is the budget. Announcements of cuts have been made continually but the statements are not long on detail. The one thing that hasn’t changed is that everything appears to be in the same flux now as it was on July 1 when the state fiscal year began.
When Governor Quinn announced the resignation of Stermer and the appointment of Michelle Stadler it marked another in a rather long line of missteps and embarrassing circumstances that he has had to endure over the last few months. Just at the time when his election campaign should running on “all eight cylinders” it sounds like it needs a major tune-up very badly. GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady has been taking full advantage by stopping just short of comparing Quinn’s fumbles to the “icon of stumbles” former President Gerald Ford. Public opinion polls have not been kind to Quinn and he has just about 63 days to turn the public around before they go to their precincts to vote.
Brady has had a good summer … with one exception. When pressed by the press to provide some detail as to how he would keep his promise to balance the state budget without raising taxes he has demurred, indicating that he would not do so before the election. With the state budget crisis taking a toll on everyone, and with the high level of uncertainty, there deserves to be a debate on the actual fiscal plans of all candidates so the public can make informed choices. So far, the “informed” part of the campaigns has been extremely lacking.
Labor Day is the traditional start to the fall election campaigns, although in modern times that “start” has been pushed ahead to Memorial Day. But, once school starts and summer vacations are over the intensity of campaign season begins its upswing, so be prepared, this is going to be one of the most interesting and important elections in a long time.
Target Season
With campaign season about to “spin out of the turn” and head for home here is a review of our thoughts on the General Assembly incumbents or races that will be targeted by both parties. There isn’t any official listing, but these do represent our best judgment as to who might be in the political crosshairs in November.
There are twenty Senate races this year. Seven should be targeted. Democrats in the Senate have 37 seats. The GOP will have to win eight to get control. If the year turns extremely ugly for Democrats it could happen, but a mild voter uprising probably won’t do it … it will take a tsunami.
• 10th District – the open seat is being vacated by retired Sen. James DeLeo (D-Chicago).
• 22nd District - Sen. Michael Noland – surprise winner in 2006, opponent is former Sen. Steve Rauchenberger.
• 31st District – Sen. Michael Bond – surprise winner in 2006 in a very Republican district
• 40th District – Sen. Toi Hutchinson – an appointee in 2009 so GOP may test her ability to connect with voters.
• 43rd District – Sen. A.J.Wilhelmi – shouldn’t be on target list but they tried to knock his opponent, a “tea party” darling, off the ballot and it got national publicity. The effort failed but his opponent is gaining some name recognition.
• 49thDistrict – Sen. Deanna DeMuzio – the district can be fickle and can yield some less than favorable results. She’s going to have to work hard to maintain this seat.
• 52nd District – Sen. Michael Frerichs – a freshman who has taken some courageous stands on some issues of controversy. The GOP will test him.
In the House, everyone is up for re-election. Democrats hold 70 seats so the GOP will have to win eleven to take the reins. There are twelve Democratic seats and four Republican seats that may be in play.
GOP Seats (4)
• 17th District – Rep.Beth Coulson vacates this seat. Dems have come close before and have an aggressive candidate who did well last time.
• 69th Distirct – Rep. Ron Wait is retiring. This is a GOP seat but Dems might take a chance.
• 102th District – Rep. Ron Stephens has had some problems and Dems will try to see if they can parley his troubles into a win.
• 104th District – Rep. Bill Black is retiring. Black held on to this seat in a Democratic area for decades. With him leaving Dems should make a push.
Democratic Seats (12)
• 36th District– Rep. James Brosnahan retired but the person nominated to replace him has had a few problems. Expect the GOP to try to make November interesting here.
• 37th District- Rep. Kevin McCarthy represents a conservative south suburban area and hasn’t had a tough race in ten years so the GOP will try to keep him busy.
• 43rd District – Rep. Keith Farnham – surprise winner in 2008 being challenged by former Rep. Ruth Munson, whom he defeated. The district is considered to be a Republican one.
• 44rd District – The GOP feels that it might be able to crimp Rep. Fred Crespo’s re-election plans in this northwest suburban area.
• 56th District – Rep. Paul Froehlich is retiring and the GOP is salivating to get this seat back.
• 59th District – Rep. Carol Sente is a new appointee so the GOP will test her. The southern Lake County district leans Republican but had elected Rep.Kathy Ryg for a number of years.
• 66th District – Rep. Mark Walker was a surprise winner in 2008. He is being challenged by former Rep. David Harris who left the legislature in 1992.
• 71th District – Rep. Michael Boland is retiring. The GOP has been very competitive in his Quad City area and will put on a major effort to win this seat.
• 85th District – Rep.Emily McAsey was a surprise winner in 2008 in a GOP leaning area. They would like to have the seat back.
• 98th District – an open seat where the GOP has always been very competitive. Rep. Gary Hannig, who resigned to become Secretary of Transportation, kept the seat for 30 years. His wife was appointed to succeed him but she’s not seeking election.
• 101st District – Rep, Bob Flider will get some competition in this Decatur area district where the GOP can be very competitive.
• 112th District – Rep. Jay Hoffman was Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s floor leader. The GOP will do their best to remind his constituents of that.
Legislative Retirements
Senate District 10 – Sen. James DeLeo has officially retired. He has been replaced by Sen, John Mulroe who is also the Democratic nominee to replace him. This district has always been tenuously Democratic so it will be a prime GOP target in November.
House District 35 – Rep. Kevin Joyce (D- Chicago) has resigned from the House and from the November election ballot. Bill Cunningham has been appointed to run for election in Joyce’s spot, but no replacement has as yet been named to fill the office vacancy. Cunningham has stated that he does not desire to be appointed but wants to assume office upon being elected. Since the next legislative session is not scheduled until late November … after the election … it’s possible that he can be appointed to fill the vacancy after he officially “wins” on November 2. This is a safe Democratic district so the chances of Cunningham losing are remote, at best.
Legislation of Interest
The governor has completed action on all bills sent to him by the legislature.
SB 580 – DuPage Water Commission. Terminates the appointments of current board members. New members will be appointed by the DuPage County Board. The legislation also specifies the powers and duties of various Commission personnel. Specifies that beginning June 1, 2016 any taxes currently imposed will no longer be continued unless approved by referendum. (Current Status – Approved – PA 96-1389)
SB 3070 - Provides that if a carcinogenic volatile organic compound is detected in the finished water of a community water system at a certain level, then the owner or operator of that system must submit a response plan that meets certain requirements to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Requires the Agency to approve, and the owner or operator to implement, the plan. Upon completion of the plan, requires the owner or operator to submit a response completion report to the Agency. Provides that any action taken by the Agency to disapprove or modify a plan or report may be appealed to the Illinois Pollution Control Board. (Current Status – Approved – PA 96-1366)
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