With one major exception, the summer of 2010 thus far has been fairly quiet. The General Assembly is home working on re-election campaigns and the governor has been trying to balance the budget while pondering the fate of over 600 bills that the legislature sent to him and scheduling almost daily bill signing ceremonies. As predicted, there will be no special session to consider borrowing $3.7 billion to make the state pension payment. That and other fiscal matters will have to wait until after November 2. Decisions made on the budget and spending, and issues such as state employee furloughs made initial press ripples but, for the most part, major controversy has not been as prevalent as has been the case the past few years.
The one story that has dominated the news cycle since June has been the Blagojevich trial and the potential impact it might have on the upcoming election cycle. But, with the stunning announcement from the former governor’s attorneys last week that they would not put on a defense, thereby ending the trial perhaps months earlier than planned, it appears that the potential November impact may be minimized … causing Republicans to stomp their feet in disgust and Democrats to wipe their brows in relief. However, only time will tell whether or not there truly will be any ancillary impact at the polls.
Campaign Season To Rev Up
While nominees have been out and about since the February primary election, expect campaign season to begin in earnest on or about August 1, and building to a crescendo that candidates hope will peak on election day.
Looking ahead, opposite sides will be trying to implement successful strategies in order to make the evening of November 2 a happy one.
Governor – Quinn’s strategy will be to emphasize his inheritance of the horrible fiscal condition of the state when he assumed office and his leadership in efforts to right the ship in the face of a horrible economy. He will also attempt to remind voters of his history of independence. He will also attempt to portray Brady as out of touch, too ultraconservative for Illinois, and with a no-tax, all-cut fiscal plan that will be ruinous to the state.
Brady will portray himself as a fiscal conservative that will end years of fiscal mismanagement and balance the state budget without raising taxes by freezing the budget at a former level, making tough decisions on cuts and by pledging no new taxes. He will attempt to characterize Quinn as a weak leader who continually flip-flops on decisions, and who will inhibit economic recovery by seeking a huge income tax increase in the middle of a deep recession. He will also likely try to link Quinn with Blagojevich but that strategy may not reverberate with voters because of Quinn’s history.
Senate – The magic number is 30. Democrats currently hold 37 of 59 seats and the GOP will be trying to end the ten year Democratic reign. A non-scientific review of the 20 senate seats up for election shows five in the swing category and another two as on the cusp. Should the GOP succeed in winning all seven Democrats would still control the chamber by one vote. If 2010 winds up being another 1994 then that may be possible.
House – Democrats have held the House since 1982 with one, two year exception in 1994. During the 1994 elections a swing of 13 seats cost them control, which they promptly won back in 1996. Speaker Michael Madigan vividly remembers 1994 and plans to do everything possible to avoid that from occurring in 2010. The magic number in the House is 60 and the Democrats currently hold 70 seats. Twelve Democratic seats and four GOP seats could be considered in the “target” category so there is more of a numerical possibility of change here than in the Senate, but it will still be a huge uphill climb for the GOP to “run the table”.
Remap – Why is 2010 any different than any other election year? One word … Reapportionment. The ability to draw legislative maps in 2011, the year after the census. And, to keep those districts in place and control the state agenda for ten years. Power.
The Illinois Constitution sets out a specific procedure for the reapportionment process. To completely control the process one party must control the governor’s office and both chambers of the General Assembly. In 1982, 1992 and 2002 there was split control so a tiebreaking procedure was utilized to determine who drew maps. Democrats won in 1982 and 2002. Republicans won in 1992. In each case there was at least a 50/50 chance of winning. When one party controls the process there is zero chance of the other side winning, so that’s what the GOP is looking to try to avoid in 2010.
Why was there even more partisanship in Springfield this year? Remap. Why was there no GOP cooperation to try to overcome the state’s problems, borrow, etc.? Because the GOP desperately needs to win one of the three parts of the remap process and have determined that the best way to do that is to show that the Democrats are ineffective leaders. And Democrats have done their best to play that part. With two weak gubernatorial candidates the GOP feels that they may have a shot there or, perhaps, in House elections.
See any similarities on the national level? Washington, D.C. is where bipartisanship has been non-existent. The national GOP wants as unlevel of a playing field as possible to win back state legislatures and governorships because they draw and approve congressional maps. There have been very few stories about the role that 2011 has played in 2009 and 2010 decision making, or lack thereof. But, reapportionment has been running in the background the entire time and will continue to do so until November 2 … and beyond.
Legislative Retirements
In the past few months there have been a number of House members who have left or who have announced their intentions to resign from the legislature.
District 18 – Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) has been replaced by Rep. Robin Gabel who also seeking election in November.
District 35 – Rep. Kevin Joyce (D- Chicago) has announced that he will be resigning from the House and from the November election ballot. No replacement has as yet been named.
District 36 – Rep. James Brosnahan (D-Evergreen Park) has been replaced by Rep. Michael Carberry. Carberry is not on the November ballot so his term will end in January.
District 60 – Rep. Eddie Washington (D-North Chicago) recently passed away. Rep. Rita Mayfield has been appointed to replace him.
District 78 – Rep. Deborah Graham (D-Chicago) has been replaced by Rep. Camille Y. Lilly.
None of the districts listed above are on target lists so each is expected to remain Democratic in November.
Lobbyist Registration Amendments
The governor has until August 3 to act on the legislature’s recently approved amendments to the Lobbyist Registration Act. There is some concern about his delay in acting.
SB 1526 establishes a fee of $300 for all registered individuals and entities and provides new lobbing expenditure reporting requirements. Filing of expenditure reports every two weeks beginning in January, 2011 would provide greater transparency and immediate access to information than do current requirements.
The reason for the governor’s delay in deciding the fate of the legislation is unknown, but should he decide to use his amendatory veto power and change any of the provisions, then the soonest a final resolution can be reached would be in November when the legislature returns to Springfield. We’ll know by August 3.
Legislation of Interest
The following is a sampling of bills that have been introduced this legislative session and that are being monitored and the current status. Only bills that remain alive are listed.
SB 580 – DuPage Water Commission. Terminates the appointments of current board members. New members will be appointed by the DuPage County Board. The legislation also specifies the powers and duties of various Commission personnel. Specifies that beginning June 1, 2016 any taxes currently imposed will no longer be continued unless approved by referendum. (Current Status – Approved – PA 96-1389)
SB 3070 - Provides that if a carcinogenic volatile organic compound is detected in the finished water of a community water system at a certain level, then the owner or operator of that system must submit a response plan that meets certain requirements to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Requires the Agency to approve, and the owner or operator to implement, the plan. Upon completion of the plan, requires the owner or operator to submit a response completion report to the Agency. Provides that any action taken by the Agency to disapprove or modify a plan or report may be appealed to the Illinois Pollution Control Board. (Current Status – Approved – PA 96-1366)
No comments:
Post a Comment