A Hot September
With the legislative veto session scheduled to commence at the end of October, the “issues table” began being set during September with a flurry of budgetary announcements initiated by the Governor, the most significant of which was the announcement of the closure of seven state facilities and the possible layoff of over 1,900 state employees. The Governor indicated that much of this pain could be remedied if the General Assembly allowed reallocation of the $376 million that be reduced from the budget that was presented to him in June. As far as this spending suggestion is concerned, it may have legs. Speaker Madigan issued a statement shortly after indicating that he might be amenable to discussing a reallocation, however under no circumstances would there be any consideration to approve expenditures beyond the level that was approved by the legislature at the end of May. The intention still appears to be that any revenues in excess of what was budgeted would be used to pay down debt.
Speaking of the state’s debt sinkhole, a recent report projected the level of unpaid state bills at the end of FY 2012 would be in the neighborhood of $5.5 billion. Another report pegged the number at $8 billion. Regardless, it’s still a huge number. But, the legislature did attempt to act like the adults in the room this past year and tried to get take steps to ameliorate the problem. There are also additions to the list of unpaid state bills like Medicaid reimbursements being delayed, higher projected pension payments, and health care costs that will make the final deficit even higher. But, projections last year put the state debt number at $12-14 billion so there apparently is some progress, albeit baby steps, being made. Also remember that the state income tax increase is supposed to expire in another 3+ years and that will mean a loss of $5-6 billion per annum. In the meantime, the General Assembly’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) has projected an average revenue increase of $500 million per month, so barring a secondary national recession there is a tiny glimmer of hope that we can see some breathing room in a few years.
So even if pressures arise to spend beyond the already budgeted level in October, three of the four legislative caucuses (Senate Democrats excluded) fully intend to adhere to the spending levels that were previously set.
Reapportionment Maps in Court
A federal court decision on the validity of the Illinois state and federal reapportionment is expected sometime in November. In the meantime candidates for the state legislature have begun making plans, preparations and announcements to run in the newly designated districts. And, some prospective candidates, incumbents in particular, are grappling with very difficult decisions regarding residency. In a redistricting year the Illinois Constitution allows a candidate to run from any district that contains any part of their former district. The catch is that if you run and win then you have to move into the district you were elected from by May 1 of the following year. The thought of uprooting families and selling homes has caused many over the years to retire, and a number of incumbents have made such announcements with a number probably yet to come.
Illinois GOP congressmen, with the exception of Rep. Tim Johnson (R-Champaign) who has not taken part in a map challenge, have generally agreed that they will not distribute petitions for the newly formed districts because they do not want to anything that would suggest any validity to the courts. That may change as the deadline for submitting reelection petitions, the last Monday in November, draws closer. Illinois Republicans have also tried to goad Democrats into making statements regarding the map process that could be used in court. Notice that anytime charges are made and Democrats are asked for responses their answers are unwaveringly simple, stating that the maps were drawn in accordance with the federal Voting Rights Act and other applicable laws and nothing more.
Gaming Expansion Still On Hold
No further development have occurred with regard to gaming expansion, but expect discussions to heat up as the legislative veto session draws closer. The parliamentary hold that was placed on SB 744 by President Cullerton in May is still in place but is expected to be removed some time soon. With the exception of indicating that the bill is overloaded, Governor Quinn has not at this point indicated exactly where his objections lie and whether a compromise is possible that wouldn’t completely scuttle the bill. In the meantime, opponents and proponents are waiting anxiously to see what the next move will be. We may have some idea very soon.
Legislative Turnover
The following legislators have announced their intentions to retire at the end of their current terms rather than seek re-election: Sen. John Millner (R-West Chicago), Rep. Kimberly du Buclet (D-Chicago), Rep. Lisa Dugan (D-Kankakee), Rep. Connie Howard (D-Chicago), Rep. Joe Lyons (D-Chicago), Rep. Karen May (D-Highland Park), and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (D-Orland Park).
Tenure
There is often an erroneous perception that once elected legislators never leave willingly, rather they stick around one election too long and suffer defeats or are carried out. While that is true for some, the numbers show that there is a great deal of turnover in legislative seats during the course of each ten year period from one reapportionment to another. While sitting incumbents are still deciding whether or not to begin the process of putting their names on the ballot for the upcoming 2012 election cycle, a cursory review shows that there has been a fairly large legislative turnover since January, 2003, the date when legislators elected under the current maps were sworn into office.
Fifty-nine senators took the oath of office in 2003. How many are still serving today? Twenty seven … which represents a turnover of 54%. While a few did leave for other elective offices, most of the 32 departures simply completed their service by way of election defeat or retirement.
The turnover rate in the House is just as telling. Seventy of the 118 House members who took the oath of office in January, 2003 are no longer serving today, a turnover of 59%. Of those 70, seven moved across the rotunda to the Senate, but the other 63 left via deaths, defeats or retirements.
The departure numbers cited above do include legislators who have vacated offices by death or resignation this summer, but do not include those who have announced their intentions to retire at the end of their terms. Additionally, there will be a further winnowing of some incumbents because the new legislative maps have forced head-to-head primary election fights, and a few others that may not survive the general election next November. When the dust clears after the election season and legislators gather in Springfield in January, 2013 to begin the legislative session expected that at least 60% of senators and 65% of representatives were not around ten years prior.
These numbers should be very meaningful to those who promote and engage in advocacy because it fractures the presumption that legislative membership is a constant and never-changing. It verifies that there is always a new coterie of legislators to educate and to tell our story to.
Veto Session
The General Assembly will convene on October 25, 26, 27 and November 8,9,10 for its veto session.
