Reviewing the results of Election 2010 in Illinois it is striking to see how much the adage, “all politics is local” comes into play. Yes, there was the GOP wave that will send a number of new faces to far-off Washington, D.C. But when it came to local “backyard” races there was only moderate change and no apparently no shift in the balance of power in Springfield with Governor Quinn apparently on the verge of eking out a pint-sized victory and Democrats maintaining majorities in both the Illinois Senate and House. There was some shrinkage in the size of the majorities but when the dust settled each leader retained a comfortable margin.
A Walkoff for Quinn?
The Governor’s race, still unresolved, had to be the biggest surprise of the night. In baseball jargon, the new term for a home run hit in the bottom of the ninth inning to win a game is called a “walkoff”. Quinn may have done the political equivalent on Tuesday.
Since last summer practically every poll showed Quinn behind, albeit in a close race, including the last round of polls that were published last weekend. Whether it was President Obama’s visit to Chicago that motivated Democrats, or just a last minute decision by some voters to become participants, Quinn apparently has been able to “slide into home” safely. During the last primary election Quinn appeared on the ropes and his ability to “close” earned him a win. It appears that lightening may have struck twice.
Legislative Rundown
Initial results show that the Democratic majority in the Illinois Senate will drop from 37 to 35 … a result much better than expected just a few weeks ago when the GOP thought that they might be able to wrestle the majority. That would have been a long shot, at best. What did, however, look doable was a possible Republican takeover of the Illinois House where over 20 seats were heavily contested and where 12 were needed to flip the majority. In a year that everyone thought was reminiscent of 1994 when that turnover actually did happen, it didn’t. Democrats were prepared and, while they will lose six seats, they have maintained a very workable majority of 64.
The following lists the targeted districts in each chamber and the winners and losers. Districts that turned over from one party to the other are noted in green.
Senate Targeted Races By District (7): Net Democratic loss – 2 seats
10th –Sen John Mulroe (D) def. Brian Doherty (R) (DeLeo (D) vacancy) – Chicago Northwest
22nd – Sen. Michael Noland (D) def. Steven Rauschenberger (R) – Elgin area
31st –Suzi Schmidt (R) def. Sen. Michael Bond (D) – Waukegan area
40tg – Sen. Toi Hutchinson (D) def.. Adam Baumgartner (R) – Southern Cook/Northern Will
43rd – Sen. A.J. Wilhelmi (D) def. Cedra Crenshaw (R) – Joliet area
49th –William “Sam” McCann (R) def. Sen. Deanna DeMuzio (D) . – Carlinville area
52nd – Sen. Michael Frerichs (D) def. Al Reynolds (R) – Champaign/Danville area
House Targeted Races By District (21): Net Democratic loss – 6 seats
17th – Daniel Biss (D) def. Hamilton Cheng (R) (Coulson (R) seat) – Northern Cook County – Wilmette/Evanston area
36th – Kelly Burke (D) def. Richard Grabowski (R) (Brosnahan seat) – South Cook County – Oak Lawn area
37th - Rep. Kevin McCarthy (D) def. Jeffrey Junkas (R) – Southwest Cook County - Tinley Park/Orland Park area
43rd – Rep. Keith Farnham (D) def. Ruth Munson (R) – Elgin area
44th – Rep. Fred Crespo (D) def. Billie Roth (R) – Northwest Cook County – Streamwood/Hoffman Estates area
56th – Michelle Mussman def. Ryan Higgins (R) (Froehlich seat) - Northwest Cook County – Schaumburg area
58th– Rep. Karen May (D) def. Lauren Turelli (R) – Lake County – Highland Park area
59th – Rep. Carol Sente (D) def. Danile Sugrue (R) – Lake County – Vernon Hills/Buffalo Grove area
66th – David Harris (R) def. Rep. Mark Walker (D) – Northwest Cook County – Arlington Heights/Mt. Prospect area
69th Joe Sosnowski (R) def. Ray Pendzinski (D) and Daniel Lindsey (Green) (Wait (R) seat) – Rockford/Belvidere area
71st – Richard Morthland (R) def. Dennis Ahern (D) (Boland (D) seat) – Moline area
75th – Sue Resin (R) def. Rep. Careen Gordon D) – Morris area
79th – Rep. Lisa Dugan (D) def.. Nick Been (R) and George Ochsenfeld (Green) – Will County – Bradley/Bourbonnais area
85th – Rep. Emily McAsey (D) def. Maripat Oliver (R) – Will County – Lockport/Bolingbrook area
91th – Michael Unes (R) def. Rep. Mike Smith (D) – Canton/East Peoria area
92nd – Rep. Jehan Gordon (D) def. Jim Montelongo (R) – Peoria area
98th – Wayne Rosenthal (R) def. Charles Landers (D) v. (Hannig (D) seat) – South Central Illinois
101st – Adam Brown (R) def. Rep. Bob Flider (D) – Decatur area
102nd – Rep. Ron Stephens (R) v. Deena Dailey (D) – Southwest Illinois – Troy/Greenville area
104th – Chad Hays (R) def. Michael Puhr (D) (Black (R) seat) – Danville area
112th – Dwight Kay (R) def. Rep. Jay Hoffman (D).– Southwest Illinois – Collinsville area
Probably the most surprising legislative result of the night was Sen. Michael Noland’s re-election defeat of former state Sen. Steven Rauschenberger. Noland was given practically zero chance to win in a”wave” year, having cast some fairly controversial votes during his four-year term and running against a former very popular, “unbeatable” incumbent. Noland has had a reputation as a hard charging, indefatigable candidate. He proved it this year.
JCAR
The Joint Committee on Administrative Rules (JCAR) provides an important function by reviewing and approving all state agency rules. Membership on JCAR is made up of twelve legislators, with three from each legislative caucus serving. There is a total of six members from each political party so committee decisions are bipartisan. JCAR membership doesn’t change much from year to year so it is surprising that one-third of its membership will change in 2011 as a result of the election. Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) was elected to Congress, Sen. Dan Rutherford (R) was elected State Treasurer, Rep. John Fritchey was elected to the Cook County Board of Commissioners, and Rep. David Miller lost his bid for Comptroller. Replacements will be made by the respective legislative leaders.
Where Do We Go From Here?
How to balance a $15 billion budget will be the critical focus of the governor and the legislature during the next two, and possibly more, budget cycles. Will there be a more realistic opportunity for that to occur if Quinn does win? Probably, but that presumes that Quinn can get his leadership act together and be the adult in the room with the capacity to say no and to marshal his legislative forces. A Brady victory could make these decisions more difficult because if there was some realization after he assumed office that new revenue would be necessary Democrats would require that he get votes from GOP legislators, and that will be a herculean, if not impossible task.
What about the veto session? Will there be major decisions made in the waning days and hours of this General Assembly? Democratic legislative leaders will have to assess their prerogatives and determine whether there is any value in allowing the new legislature to begin with a clean slate. Major veto session decisions are not often easy because some losers and retirees lose their enthusiasm and may not even be in attendance. So, if there are going to be major undertakings in the next few months there will have to be a full court press to make sure that everyone is committed and that might be excruciatingly frustrating.
Will budget decisions in the legislature become more bipartisan next year? Also possible. But Democrats are going to have to let Republicans into the process, and Republicans are going to have to show a willingness to work toward solutions. When Governors Thompson and Edgar faced budget problems there was a willingness from both sides to find both a solution and the requisite votes to enact them. That has not been the case of late, and to cure the Illinois budget woes it’s going to demand bipartisanship.
A potential Quinn win, coupled with the Democratic legislative majorities and Supreme Court Justice Kilbride’s successful retention will allow the Democrats to become the first political party since the adoption of the 1970 Illinois Constitution to control the redistricting process from the beginning. Reapportionment had been a major underlying issue for the last two election cycles and will generally determine control of the General Assembly for the next ten years. Will the fact that reapportionment decisions have now become a fait accompli (if Quinn’s win is confirmed) cause legislative debate to become more tempered? That, too, is a possibility, although the odds may be long.
